Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Iran launches retaliatory strikes against Israel's military infrastructure in occupied territories within 72 hours of the Beirut strike. This includes targeting key airbases, missile facilities, and strategic ports. The strikes are likely to be a mixture of conventional munitions and potentially drones or missiles. * Confirmation indicators: Iranian officials announce specific targets and confirm the launch of retaliatory strikes. Satellite imagery shows increased activity at Iranian military bases with confirmed launches of ballistic missiles towards Israel. * Time horizon: Within 72 hours of the initial strike on Beirut, escalating to a sustained period of conflict lasting several weeks. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: Israel and Iran engage in diplomatic efforts through intermediaries and (76% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Iran launches retaliatory strikes against Israel's military infrastructure in occupied territories within 72 hours of the Beirut strike. This includes targeting key airbases, missile facilities, and strategic ports. The strikes are likely to be a mixture of conventional munitions and potentially drones or missiles. * Confirmation indicators: Iranian officials announce specific targets and confirm the launch of retaliatory strikes. Satellite imagery shows increased activity at Iranian military bases with confirmed launches of ballistic missiles towards Israel. * Time horizon: Within 72 hours of the initial strike on Beirut, escalating to a sustained period of conflict lasting several weeks. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: Israel and Iran engage in diplomatic efforts through intermediaries and (17% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Iran launches retaliatory strikes against Israel's military infrastructure in occupied territories within 72 hours of the Beirut strike. This includes targeting key airbases, missile facilities, and strategic ports. The strikes are likely to be a mixture of conventional munitions and potentially drones or missiles. * Confirmation indicators: Iranian officials announce specific targets and confirm the launch of retaliatory strikes. Satellite imagery shows increased activity at Iranian military bases with confirmed launches of ballistic missiles towards Israel. * Time horizon: Within 72 hours of the initial strike on Beirut, escalating to a sustained period of conflict lasting several weeks. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: Israel and Iran engage in diplomatic efforts through intermediaries and (6% model probability, not a guarantee)