S6/10Geopolitical
The next crash: why this time might not be different
Stock markets are not only ignoring the obvious threats, but seem imbued with extreme optimism
⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 35% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days