Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Mali's military uses the discovered submunitions to launch further airstrikes against suspected insurgents in northern Mali, escalating tensions with Russia and potentially triggering a wider conflict. This leads to increased international pressure on Mali's government for transparency and accountability regarding the use of banned weapons. * Confirmation indicators: 1) A formal statement from the Malian government acknowledging the presence of Russian-made submunitions and their use in airstrikes, followed by confirmation from Russia. 2) The deployment of additional military forces to Mali or a regional escalation in tensions between Russia and Western powers. * Time horizon: 14 days - 3 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The discovery of the submunitions is met with international condem (86% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Mali's military uses the discovered submunitions to launch further airstrikes against suspected insurgents in northern Mali, escalating tensions with Russia and potentially triggering a wider conflict. This leads to increased international pressure on Mali's government for transparency and accountability regarding the use of banned weapons. * Confirmation indicators: 1) A formal statement from the Malian government acknowledging the presence of Russian-made submunitions and their use in airstrikes, followed by confirmation from Russia. 2) The deployment of additional military forces to Mali or a regional escalation in tensions between Russia and Western powers. * Time horizon: 14 days - 3 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The discovery of the submunitions is met with international condem (10% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Mali's military uses the discovered submunitions to launch further airstrikes against suspected insurgents in northern Mali, escalating tensions with Russia and potentially triggering a wider conflict. This leads to increased international pressure on Mali's government for transparency and accountability regarding the use of banned weapons. * Confirmation indicators: 1) A formal statement from the Malian government acknowledging the presence of Russian-made submunitions and their use in airstrikes, followed by confirmation from Russia. 2) The deployment of additional military forces to Mali or a regional escalation in tensions between Russia and Western powers. * Time horizon: 14 days - 3 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The discovery of the submunitions is met with international condem (4% model probability, not a guarantee)