Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia escalates its actions by targeting critical infrastructure in Ukraine, potentially including energy grids or civilian facilities. This triggers retaliatory strikes from Ukraine and NATO countries, escalating tensions further. International condemnation of Russia's actions intensifies, leading to sanctions and potential military intervention by Western powers. * Confirmation indicators: 1) Reports of increased Russian missile attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, 2) Confirmation of NATO involvement in Ukraine through air or naval support, 3) Escalation of diplomatic pressure from the UN Security Council for a ceasefire. * Time horizon: 7-14 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The international community expresses concern over the incident but fails to reach a decisive response. Russia c (78% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia escalates its actions by targeting critical infrastructure in Ukraine, potentially including energy grids or civilian facilities. This triggers retaliatory strikes from Ukraine and NATO countries, escalating tensions further. International condemnation of Russia's actions intensifies, leading to sanctions and potential military intervention by Western powers. * Confirmation indicators: 1) Reports of increased Russian missile attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, 2) Confirmation of NATO involvement in Ukraine through air or naval support, 3) Escalation of diplomatic pressure from the UN Security Council for a ceasefire. * Time horizon: 7-14 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The international community expresses concern over the incident but fails to reach a decisive response. Russia c (16% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia escalates its actions by targeting critical infrastructure in Ukraine, potentially including energy grids or civilian facilities. This triggers retaliatory strikes from Ukraine and NATO countries, escalating tensions further. International condemnation of Russia's actions intensifies, leading to sanctions and potential military intervention by Western powers. * Confirmation indicators: 1) Reports of increased Russian missile attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, 2) Confirmation of NATO involvement in Ukraine through air or naval support, 3) Escalation of diplomatic pressure from the UN Security Council for a ceasefire. * Time horizon: 7-14 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The international community expresses concern over the incident but fails to reach a decisive response. Russia c (6% model probability, not a guarantee)