S6/10Geopolitical
Projectile hits near Qeshm Island, report says
Projectile hits near Qeshm Island, report says A US projectile has hit near Iran’s Qeshm Island, Mehr news agency reported. US forces have attack Qeshm, Kish and Abu Musa islands, as well as port cities along Iran’s southern coast, including Bandar Abbas in recent days.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 40% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days