S8/10Geopolitical
Iran warns Israel of retaliation after its attack on Beirut — MP
"Look at the sky over the occupied lands tonight," spokesman for the Iranian Parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Committee Ebrahim Rezaei wrote on X
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 76% model probability
Here are three scenarios based on the provided data:
Horizon: 7–30 days
B
Status quo— 17% model probability
Here are three scenarios based on the provided data:
Horizon: 7–30 days
C
De-escalation— 6% model probability
Here are three scenarios based on the provided data:
Horizon: 7–30 days