S6/10Geopolitical
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fires warning shots at ship in Strait of Hormuz
Due to the incident, the strait has been closed until further notice, the IRGC says
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 38% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days