S6/10Geopolitical
US delivers strikes on Iranian targets in Strait of Hormuz area — Axios journalist
Barak Ravid says the strikes are being carried out in response to shots earlier fired by the IRGC at a commercial ship in the area
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 40% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days