Axelrod's Oracle
S9/10Geopolitical

Trump circulates draft Iran peace deal to Israel and allies

Trump circulates draft Iran peace deal to Israel and allies US President Donald Trump has circulated a draft agreement to allies, including Israel, as efforts continue to prevent further ceasefire violations from derailing talks on ending the war on Iran. The proposal reportedly mirrors a framework already circulating in the region for several days. It would include reopening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping, lifting the US blockade on Iranian ports and granting Iran access to up to $12bn in frozen assets. The plan envisions commercial traffic through the strait returning to pre-war levels within 30 days, alongside the start of negotiations lasting up to 60 days on the future of Iran’s nuclear programme. Talks would cover Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, a temporary halt to further enrichment and oversight by the International Atomic Energy Agency. China is also pushing for any agreement to be ratified by the United Nations Security Council.

28 May 2026, 15:45 UTCSource: Middle East Eye

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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 77% model probability
Did not materialise

Here are three scenarios based on the provided event trigger and cascade analysis data:

Confirmation indicators

  • ◆1. Iran's Supreme Leader issues a statement condemning the US peace deal proposal.
  • ◆2. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reports an increase in suspicious nuclear activity at an Iranian facility.
  • ◆3. The US imposes new sanctions on Iranian officials and entities.
Horizon: 14–21 days
B
Status quo— 17% model probability
Did not materialise

Here are three scenarios based on the provided event trigger and cascade analysis data:

Confirmation indicators

  • ◆1. Iran's Supreme Leader issues a statement condemning the US peace deal proposal.
  • ◆2. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reports an increase in suspicious nuclear activity at an Iranian facility.
  • ◆3. The US imposes new sanctions on Iranian officials and entities.
Horizon: 14–21 days
C
De-escalation— 6% model probability
Did not materialise

Here are three scenarios based on the provided event trigger and cascade analysis data:

Confirmation indicators

  • ◆1. Iran's Supreme Leader issues a statement condemning the US peace deal proposal.
  • ◆2. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reports an increase in suspicious nuclear activity at an Iranian facility.
  • ◆3. The US imposes new sanctions on Iranian officials and entities.
Horizon: 14–21 days