S6/10Geopolitical
Spain pushes migrants home as Ceuta vents over ‘invasion’
Soldiers round up Moroccans hoping to remain in the enclave in the face of local opposition
⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days
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