S6/10Geopolitical
New Caledonia: A deeply divided territory
Two years after the riots that shook New Caledonia in 2024, FRANCE 24 returns to a French overseas territory still grappling with the consequences of one of the darkest chapters in its recent history. Travelling from the Kanak independence stronghold of Saint-Louis to Mont-Dore, Nouméa and Bourail, our reporters meet the people living with the lasting scars of the violence.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days
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