Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia's increased military presence in African nations could lead to heightened tensions with Western powers, potentially triggering sanctions or diplomatic isolation. This could trigger a rise in oil prices as global supply chains face disruptions and demand for alternative energy sources increases. * Confirmation Indicators: A significant escalation of Russian military operations in Africa (e.g., deployment of troops) within the next 1-2 weeks, followed by public statements from Western powers outlining new sanctions measures against Russia. * Time Horizon: 1-2 weeks to a few months Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: Russia and Nigeria will continue to engage in discussions regarding cooperation within the framework of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum, focusing on trade agreements and explorat (34% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia's increased military presence in African nations could lead to heightened tensions with Western powers, potentially triggering sanctions or diplomatic isolation. This could trigger a rise in oil prices as global supply chains face disruptions and demand for alternative energy sources increases. * Confirmation Indicators: A significant escalation of Russian military operations in Africa (e.g., deployment of troops) within the next 1-2 weeks, followed by public statements from Western powers outlining new sanctions measures against Russia. * Time Horizon: 1-2 weeks to a few months Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: Russia and Nigeria will continue to engage in discussions regarding cooperation within the framework of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum, focusing on trade agreements and explorat (48% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia's increased military presence in African nations could lead to heightened tensions with Western powers, potentially triggering sanctions or diplomatic isolation. This could trigger a rise in oil prices as global supply chains face disruptions and demand for alternative energy sources increases. * Confirmation Indicators: A significant escalation of Russian military operations in Africa (e.g., deployment of troops) within the next 1-2 weeks, followed by public statements from Western powers outlining new sanctions measures against Russia. * Time Horizon: 1-2 weeks to a few months Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: Russia and Nigeria will continue to engage in discussions regarding cooperation within the framework of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum, focusing on trade agreements and explorat (18% model probability, not a guarantee)

Россия и Нигерия обсуждают сотрудничество в геологоразведке и поставках топлива

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