S6/10Geopolitical
DRC faces rising tensions over constitutional referendum
Tensions are rising in DR Congo over plans to introduce a new constitution. The opposition accuses President Tshisekedi of using it to seek a third term but has postponed planned protests following an AU mediation offer.
⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 35% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days