Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) - 50% * Chain: Foreign investment in Russian bonds remains stagnant at 3.4%, leading to increased scrutiny by international financial institutions and a potential tightening of lending conditions for Russia. This could trigger further capital flight, leading to a decline in the ruble's value against major currencies. * Confirmation indicators: A significant increase in negative commentary from global rating agencies, followed by a sharp drop in Russian bond issuance volume within 10 days. * Time horizon: 2-4 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo) - 38% * Chain: The current level of foreign investment in Russian bonds remains largely unchanged, with no significant changes to the economic landscape or global financial dynamics. * Confirmation indicators: No major shifts in international sanctions or policy decisions rel (29% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) - 50% * Chain: Foreign investment in Russian bonds remains stagnant at 3.4%, leading to increased scrutiny by international financial institutions and a potential tightening of lending conditions for Russia. This could trigger further capital flight, leading to a decline in the ruble's value against major currencies. * Confirmation indicators: A significant increase in negative commentary from global rating agencies, followed by a sharp drop in Russian bond issuance volume within 10 days. * Time horizon: 2-4 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo) - 38% * Chain: The current level of foreign investment in Russian bonds remains largely unchanged, with no significant changes to the economic landscape or global financial dynamics. * Confirmation indicators: No major shifts in international sanctions or policy decisions rel (52% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) - 50% * Chain: Foreign investment in Russian bonds remains stagnant at 3.4%, leading to increased scrutiny by international financial institutions and a potential tightening of lending conditions for Russia. This could trigger further capital flight, leading to a decline in the ruble's value against major currencies. * Confirmation indicators: A significant increase in negative commentary from global rating agencies, followed by a sharp drop in Russian bond issuance volume within 10 days. * Time horizon: 2-4 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo) - 38% * Chain: The current level of foreign investment in Russian bonds remains largely unchanged, with no significant changes to the economic landscape or global financial dynamics. * Confirmation indicators: No major shifts in international sanctions or policy decisions rel (19% model probability, not a guarantee)