S9/10Geopolitical
'The US and Iran don't want a return to full-scale warfare, but neither can appear to be the loser'
US has launched a second salve of strikes on Iran on July 8 after US President Donald Trump announced that the ceasefire with Tehran was over at the NATO summit. Iran says that the strikes targeted civilian infrastructure including railway bridges, calling them a "gross war crime". FRANCE 24's Philip Turle tells us more about the situation.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 71% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days