S9/10Geopolitical
US Blocks Oil Sales in New Test of Ceasefire
The US carried out a new round of strikes in Iran targeting more than 80 sites and revoked a waiver allowing new sales of Iranian oil, further imperiling a peace agreement after a series of attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz. (Source: Bloomberg)
Click a tag to subscribe via email/Telegram (manage channels in Account).
⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days
Exact probability, cascade chain, and confirmation indicators unlock for approved members.
Checking access status…