S8/10Geopolitical
Chinese ballistic missile test is said to undermine nuclear weapons-free zone in South Pacific
China has repeatedly called out the AUKUS nuclear submarine deal between Australia, the U.S. and the U.K. as violating the treaty.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 61% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days