S9/10Geopolitical
US launches fresh strikes on Iran, as Trump warns of retaliation for death of soldiers
The US says the attacks were aimed at degrading Iran's capabilities to attack ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Horizon: 7–30 days
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