S6/10Geopolitical
Bandits, gang members and drug traffickers: Russia expands recruitment of convicts for war
Russia's State Duma (the lower house of the Russian parliament) has expanded the list of convicted criminals whom Russian authorities will be able to recruit into the Armed Forces during mobilisation, martial law or wartime.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Эскалация
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Horizon: 7–30 days
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