Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Shokhin's statement regarding inflation target being flexible signals potential for further rate hikes beyond current expectations. Central bank may continue to raise rates aggressively, potentially leading to a deeper economic slowdown and increased unemployment. This could trigger political pressure for policy changes and potentially lead to heightened social unrest. * Confirmation Indicators: Central Bank of Russia announces another significant interest rate hike exceeding market expectations. Significant decline in the ruble exchange rate against major currencies. * Time Horizon: 30-60 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The Russian government may focus on mitigating inflation through targeted policies like subsidies and price controls, but these measures might not be sufficient to signif (25% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Shokhin's statement regarding inflation target being flexible signals potential for further rate hikes beyond current expectations. Central bank may continue to raise rates aggressively, potentially leading to a deeper economic slowdown and increased unemployment. This could trigger political pressure for policy changes and potentially lead to heightened social unrest. * Confirmation Indicators: Central Bank of Russia announces another significant interest rate hike exceeding market expectations. Significant decline in the ruble exchange rate against major currencies. * Time Horizon: 30-60 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The Russian government may focus on mitigating inflation through targeted policies like subsidies and price controls, but these measures might not be sufficient to signif (55% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Shokhin's statement regarding inflation target being flexible signals potential for further rate hikes beyond current expectations. Central bank may continue to raise rates aggressively, potentially leading to a deeper economic slowdown and increased unemployment. This could trigger political pressure for policy changes and potentially lead to heightened social unrest. * Confirmation Indicators: Central Bank of Russia announces another significant interest rate hike exceeding market expectations. Significant decline in the ruble exchange rate against major currencies. * Time Horizon: 30-60 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The Russian government may focus on mitigating inflation through targeted policies like subsidies and price controls, but these measures might not be sufficient to signif (20% model probability, not a guarantee)

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