S6/10Geopolitical
川普自稱守護者要接管荷莫茲海峽 ， 研議收 20 % 海峽過路費衝擊油價
⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 35% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days