Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Confirmed cases rise to 200+ within two weeks, prompting WHO and DRC authorities to declare an emergency response. Increased travel restrictions and border closures are implemented by neighboring countries in the following week. This triggers a surge in panic buying of essential supplies, leading to price hikes in food and medicine markets. * Official declaration of an Ebola outbreak by the WHO. * Confirmed cases exceeding 200 within two weeks. * Implementation of travel restrictions by neighboring countries. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The DRC government implements containment measures, including quarantine zones and increased healthcare capacity. The outbreak is contained to a localized area within the Ituri province, with limited impact on global markets. Incr (43% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Confirmed cases rise to 200+ within two weeks, prompting WHO and DRC authorities to declare an emergency response. Increased travel restrictions and border closures are implemented by neighboring countries in the following week. This triggers a surge in panic buying of essential supplies, leading to price hikes in food and medicine markets. * Official declaration of an Ebola outbreak by the WHO. * Confirmed cases exceeding 200 within two weeks. * Implementation of travel restrictions by neighboring countries. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The DRC government implements containment measures, including quarantine zones and increased healthcare capacity. The outbreak is contained to a localized area within the Ituri province, with limited impact on global markets. Incr (41% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Confirmed cases rise to 200+ within two weeks, prompting WHO and DRC authorities to declare an emergency response. Increased travel restrictions and border closures are implemented by neighboring countries in the following week. This triggers a surge in panic buying of essential supplies, leading to price hikes in food and medicine markets. * Official declaration of an Ebola outbreak by the WHO. * Confirmed cases exceeding 200 within two weeks. * Implementation of travel restrictions by neighboring countries. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The DRC government implements containment measures, including quarantine zones and increased healthcare capacity. The outbreak is contained to a localized area within the Ituri province, with limited impact on global markets. Incr (15% model probability, not a guarantee)

WHO chief heads to ‘hardest hit’ Ituri as DRC’s 17th Ebola outbreak spreads

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators