Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Russia's international reserves decline further due to continued sanctions and reduced global trade. This leads to increased pressure on the ruble, potentially triggering capital flight from Russian banks and individuals. The Central Bank of Russia may implement measures like currency controls or exchange rate manipulation, but these actions could exacerbate economic instability. * Significant increase in the number of foreign investors withdrawing funds from Russian assets. * A sharp decline in the ruble's value against major currencies within a week. * Increased volatility in the Russian stock market with significant sell-offs. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The global economic landscape remains relatively stable, and Russia maintains its current international r (29% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Russia's international reserves decline further due to continued sanctions and reduced global trade. This leads to increased pressure on the ruble, potentially triggering capital flight from Russian banks and individuals. The Central Bank of Russia may implement measures like currency controls or exchange rate manipulation, but these actions could exacerbate economic instability. * Significant increase in the number of foreign investors withdrawing funds from Russian assets. * A sharp decline in the ruble's value against major currencies within a week. * Increased volatility in the Russian stock market with significant sell-offs. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The global economic landscape remains relatively stable, and Russia maintains its current international r (52% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Russia's international reserves decline further due to continued sanctions and reduced global trade. This leads to increased pressure on the ruble, potentially triggering capital flight from Russian banks and individuals. The Central Bank of Russia may implement measures like currency controls or exchange rate manipulation, but these actions could exacerbate economic instability. * Significant increase in the number of foreign investors withdrawing funds from Russian assets. * A sharp decline in the ruble's value against major currencies within a week. * Increased volatility in the Russian stock market with significant sell-offs. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The global economic landscape remains relatively stable, and Russia maintains its current international r (19% model probability, not a guarantee)

Russia’s international reserves down $15 bln in one week to $753 bln — Central Bank

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators