S6/10Geopolitical
Is the Strait of Hormuz still Iran's trump card?
Iran's latest attacks show it can easily disrupt shipping, energy markets and draw in Gulf neighbors. DW asks how much leverage Tehran really has over Washington and if its high-risk strategy could backfire.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 44% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days