S6/10Geopolitical

Is the Strait of Hormuz still Iran's trump card?

Iran's latest attacks show it can easily disrupt shipping, energy markets and draw in Gulf neighbors. DW asks how much leverage Tehran really has over Washington and if its high-risk strategy could backfire.

09 Jul 2026, 07:51 UTCSource: DW WorldOriginal source

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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация44% model probability

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Horizon: 7–30 days