S9/10Geopolitical

Global Risks Heating Up

Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***IranThe U.S.-Iranian ceasefire agreed in April began deteriorating — and the Memorandum of Understanding signed on June 17 — ramping up to a near-constant exchange of hostilities in early July. On July 10, Trump declared that the ceasefire was over. The United States resumed its naval blockade and has been striking Iranian soil on a daily basis. Iran has targeted vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz while launching drones and missiles at Arab Gulf states The post Global Risks Heating Up appeared first on War on the Rocks .

24 Jul 2026, 17:45 UTCSource: War on the RocksOriginal source

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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Horizon: 7–30 days

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