S9/10Geopolitical
Middle East live: Tehran threatens 'full-scale' offensive as US launches seventh night of attacks
The US launched a seventh wave of airstrikes on Iran overnight on Friday despite a warning from Tehran that it would resume "full-scale offensive operations" if the attacks continued. Follow our liveblog for the latest updates.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 80% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days