Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia's reduced LNG supplies to Europe trigger retaliatory measures from EU countries, including potential sanctions on Russian energy companies and further restrictions on trade. This escalation could lead to a rise in geopolitical tensions between Russia and the EU, potentially impacting global energy markets and supply chains. * Confirmation indicators: A formal declaration of "strategic partnership" with alternative LNG suppliers by the EU, followed by increased scrutiny of Russian companies' operations within the EU. * Time horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The reduced supply of Russian LNG is absorbed by existing market mechanisms and adjusted for by European buyers. This scenario assumes a continuation of current energy policies, with potential adjustments to the EU' (34% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia's reduced LNG supplies to Europe trigger retaliatory measures from EU countries, including potential sanctions on Russian energy companies and further restrictions on trade. This escalation could lead to a rise in geopolitical tensions between Russia and the EU, potentially impacting global energy markets and supply chains. * Confirmation indicators: A formal declaration of "strategic partnership" with alternative LNG suppliers by the EU, followed by increased scrutiny of Russian companies' operations within the EU. * Time horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The reduced supply of Russian LNG is absorbed by existing market mechanisms and adjusted for by European buyers. This scenario assumes a continuation of current energy policies, with potential adjustments to the EU' (48% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia's reduced LNG supplies to Europe trigger retaliatory measures from EU countries, including potential sanctions on Russian energy companies and further restrictions on trade. This escalation could lead to a rise in geopolitical tensions between Russia and the EU, potentially impacting global energy markets and supply chains. * Confirmation indicators: A formal declaration of "strategic partnership" with alternative LNG suppliers by the EU, followed by increased scrutiny of Russian companies' operations within the EU. * Time horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The reduced supply of Russian LNG is absorbed by existing market mechanisms and adjusted for by European buyers. This scenario assumes a continuation of current energy policies, with potential adjustments to the EU' (18% model probability, not a guarantee)

Поставки российского СПГ в Европу в январе-мае сократились на 2,4%

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