S8/10Geopolitical
A week of strikes shatters hope of a lasting US-Iran peace deal
Hopes of a lasting peace deal between Iran and the US are fading fast following a week that has seen consistent exchange of fire between the two sides. The US resumed its blockade on the Strait of Hormuz firing at a ship that attempted to breach it. For its part, Iran retaliated by launching strikes on US allies including Jordan, where projectiles believed to be of Iranian origin were spotted.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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