S9/10Geopolitical
Putin 'starting to understand he may not win' the war in Ukraine
Russia struck Ukraine's Kyiv region with ballistic missiles and drones on July 7, killing at least 11 people and wounding dozens on the eve of a NATO summit in Turkey. This comes as, within Russia, the war has come under growing criticism as Ukraine has ramped up strikes inside the country and Russian casualties keep growing. For FRANCE 24's Nick Holdsworth, these deadly attacks are a 'sign of desperation' as Putin is realising he might not win the war.
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 80% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days