S6/10Geopolitical
Nigeria’s counterterrorism gains carry a warning
Mass surrenders may weaken armed groups, but reintegration without justice risks fuelling resentment.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Эскалация
Сценарии event-driven intelligence: Nigeria's counterterrorism gains carry a warning
Horizon: 7–30 days
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