S6/10Geopolitical
US launches more strikes after Iran declares Strait of Hormuz closed
IRGC hits commercial ship transiting through waterway, with Centcom saying a crew member was missing from vessel
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days
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