S8/10Geopolitical
US intelligence believes strikes cannot change Iran's negotiating position — media
Intelligence analysts believe Iran and the United States remain "stuck in an indefinite limbo between peace and war," the newspaper said
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 58% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days