S8/10Geopolitical
Reopening talks with Washington impossible as long as US attacks continue — Iranian source
If Washington indeed seeks to revive talks, it should first stop its attacks and bombardment of Iran, an Iranian source noted
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 59% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days