Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Iran's Revolutionary Guard challenges Chinese diplomacy on the ceasefire, demanding increased military aid and threatening to target Chinese interests in the region. This triggers a series of diplomatic escalations between Iran, China, and other regional powers. Tensions rise, leading to increased military exercises by regional actors like Israel and Saudi Arabia. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The Chinese and Iranian governments engage in intensive diplomatic efforts, with both sides working towards maintaini (65% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Iran's Revolutionary Guard challenges Chinese diplomacy on the ceasefire, demanding increased military aid and threatening to target Chinese interests in the region. This triggers a series of diplomatic escalations between Iran, China, and other regional powers. Tensions rise, leading to increased military exercises by regional actors like Israel and Saudi Arabia. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The Chinese and Iranian governments engage in intensive diplomatic efforts, with both sides working towards maintaini (25% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Iran's Revolutionary Guard challenges Chinese diplomacy on the ceasefire, demanding increased military aid and threatening to target Chinese interests in the region. This triggers a series of diplomatic escalations between Iran, China, and other regional powers. Tensions rise, leading to increased military exercises by regional actors like Israel and Saudi Arabia. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The Chinese and Iranian governments engage in intensive diplomatic efforts, with both sides working towards maintaini (9% model probability, not a guarantee)

Chinese FM calls for preserving hard-won momentum of ceasefire on Iran

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators