Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia retaliates with increased military activity in Crimea and Donetsk Oblast. This could include increased shelling, drone strikes, or even a limited ground offensive. Ukraine's response might involve further attacks on Russian targets, potentially escalating into a broader conflict involving NATO involvement. * Confirmation Indicators: 1) Increased reports of Russian military movements near the Ukrainian border with heightened activity in Crimea and Donetsk. 2) Reports of increased air defense activity by both Russia and Ukraine. 3) Confirmation from NATO sources of increased military presence or deployment in Eastern Europe. * Time Horizon: 5-10 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Baseline: The conflict remains largely static with limited escalation. Both sides continue to engage in targeted st (76% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia retaliates with increased military activity in Crimea and Donetsk Oblast. This could include increased shelling, drone strikes, or even a limited ground offensive. Ukraine's response might involve further attacks on Russian targets, potentially escalating into a broader conflict involving NATO involvement. * Confirmation Indicators: 1) Increased reports of Russian military movements near the Ukrainian border with heightened activity in Crimea and Donetsk. 2) Reports of increased air defense activity by both Russia and Ukraine. 3) Confirmation from NATO sources of increased military presence or deployment in Eastern Europe. * Time Horizon: 5-10 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Baseline: The conflict remains largely static with limited escalation. Both sides continue to engage in targeted st (17% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia retaliates with increased military activity in Crimea and Donetsk Oblast. This could include increased shelling, drone strikes, or even a limited ground offensive. Ukraine's response might involve further attacks on Russian targets, potentially escalating into a broader conflict involving NATO involvement. * Confirmation Indicators: 1) Increased reports of Russian military movements near the Ukrainian border with heightened activity in Crimea and Donetsk. 2) Reports of increased air defense activity by both Russia and Ukraine. 3) Confirmation from NATO sources of increased military presence or deployment in Eastern Europe. * Time Horizon: 5-10 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Baseline: The conflict remains largely static with limited escalation. Both sides continue to engage in targeted st (6% model probability, not a guarantee)

Ukraine's General Staff confirms strikes on radar systems in temporarily Crimea and Russian logistics sites in Donetsk Oblast

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators