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S8/10Geopolitical
Former Russian president threatens to wipe Lithuania "off the map" and says NATO will not defend it
Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev threatens that Lithuania could be "wiped off the map" if US nuclear weapons are deployed there and claims NATO would not invoke Article 5.
Source: Ukrainska PravdaOriginal source
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days
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