Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Kim Jong-un's increased military activity in the Korean peninsula, coupled with China's potential support for North Korea's nuclear program development leads to heightened tensions with South Korea and potentially a US response. * Confirmation indicators: North Korea conducts a large-scale military exercise involving ballistic missile tests or deployment of additional tactical nuclear weapons. A joint military drill between China and North Korea is observed in the Pacific. * Time horizon: 60 days to 90 days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: The meeting between Kim Jong-un and Xi Jinping serves as a platform for diplomatic dialogue, leading to increased trade and economic cooperation between North Korea and China. * Confirmation indicators: The Chinese government announces significant inve (31% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Kim Jong-un's increased military activity in the Korean peninsula, coupled with China's potential support for North Korea's nuclear program development leads to heightened tensions with South Korea and potentially a US response. * Confirmation indicators: North Korea conducts a large-scale military exercise involving ballistic missile tests or deployment of additional tactical nuclear weapons. A joint military drill between China and North Korea is observed in the Pacific. * Time horizon: 60 days to 90 days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: The meeting between Kim Jong-un and Xi Jinping serves as a platform for diplomatic dialogue, leading to increased trade and economic cooperation between North Korea and China. * Confirmation indicators: The Chinese government announces significant inve (51% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Kim Jong-un's increased military activity in the Korean peninsula, coupled with China's potential support for North Korea's nuclear program development leads to heightened tensions with South Korea and potentially a US response. * Confirmation indicators: North Korea conducts a large-scale military exercise involving ballistic missile tests or deployment of additional tactical nuclear weapons. A joint military drill between China and North Korea is observed in the Pacific. * Time horizon: 60 days to 90 days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: The meeting between Kim Jong-un and Xi Jinping serves as a platform for diplomatic dialogue, leading to increased trade and economic cooperation between North Korea and China. * Confirmation indicators: The Chinese government announces significant inve (19% model probability, not a guarantee)