Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia escalates its air attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and civilian targets, leading to increased international condemnation. Western nations respond with more military aid but hesitate on direct intervention due to fear of escalation. This leads to a renewed arms race between Russia and the West. * Confirmation indicators: 1) Increased reports of Russian missile strikes targeting critical infrastructure (energy, power grids). 2) NATO member states publicly express support for increased military assistance to Ukraine with clear timelines. 3) Russia announces deployment of new long-range missiles capable of striking Western targets. * Time horizon: Within 4 weeks - escalation could lead to a significant shift in the conflict dynamics and potentially trigger a wider international crisis. Scenario B (St (78% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia escalates its air attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and civilian targets, leading to increased international condemnation. Western nations respond with more military aid but hesitate on direct intervention due to fear of escalation. This leads to a renewed arms race between Russia and the West. * Confirmation indicators: 1) Increased reports of Russian missile strikes targeting critical infrastructure (energy, power grids). 2) NATO member states publicly express support for increased military assistance to Ukraine with clear timelines. 3) Russia announces deployment of new long-range missiles capable of striking Western targets. * Time horizon: Within 4 weeks - escalation could lead to a significant shift in the conflict dynamics and potentially trigger a wider international crisis. Scenario B (St (16% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia escalates its air attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and civilian targets, leading to increased international condemnation. Western nations respond with more military aid but hesitate on direct intervention due to fear of escalation. This leads to a renewed arms race between Russia and the West. * Confirmation indicators: 1) Increased reports of Russian missile strikes targeting critical infrastructure (energy, power grids). 2) NATO member states publicly express support for increased military assistance to Ukraine with clear timelines. 3) Russia announces deployment of new long-range missiles capable of striking Western targets. * Time horizon: Within 4 weeks - escalation could lead to a significant shift in the conflict dynamics and potentially trigger a wider international crisis. Scenario B (St (6% model probability, not a guarantee)