S6/10Geopolitical
Electoral preferences: former defence minister Fedorov nearly catches up with former commander-in-chief Zaluzhnyi – survey
In the first round of a hypothetical presidential election, 22.3% of Ukrainians would vote for incumbent President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, 14.9% for former commander-in-chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi and 13.4% for Mykhailo Fedorov, whose dismissal as defence minister sparked a wave of protests.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Horizon: 7–30 days
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