S9/10Geopolitical
Trump paused attacks on Iran to make space for talks, US ambassador says
Neither the US nor Iran have launched attacks in the last two nights, after almost two weeks of tit-for-tat strikes risked derailing talks to permanently end the war.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days
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