S9/10Geopolitical
Six Russian commanders sentenced in absentia for attacks on Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant
A Ukrainian court has found two major generals and four battalion tactical group commanders from Russia's Rosgvardia (National Guard) guilty in absentia of violating the laws and customs of war and sentenced each to 12 years' imprisonment for the shelling of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in 2022.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Эскалация
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Horizon: 7–30 days
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