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S8/10Geopolitical
Ukraine strikes continue as polling stations open in Russia
Russia and Ukraine traded strikes overnight as Russians prepared to vote in parliamentary elections in which the Kremlin's main party, United Russia, is poised to keep its grip on power, with the only party that criticised the war was removed from the ballot.
Source: France24Original source
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days
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