S6/10Geopolitical
One anti-war critic fined, another held as Russia clamps down on opponents
While Boris Nadezhdin is barred from running for parliament, blogger Ilya Remeslo is remanded in custody.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days
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