Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Iran's military forces engage in provocative actions near US naval bases or oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions and prompting a retaliatory strike from the U.S. This triggers a global energy crisis as sanctions on Iranian oil exports are re-imposed. * Confirmation indicators: Increased military activity by Iran near US naval vessels, followed by a confirmed drone attack on an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. * Time horizon: 10 to 20 days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: The agreement between the U.S. and Iran to extend the ceasefire is finalized, but underlying tensions remain unresolved. This leads to a period of cautious diplomacy with limited progress on nuclear negotiations. * Confirmation indicators: The formal signing of an extended ceasefire agreement by b (79% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Iran's military forces engage in provocative actions near US naval bases or oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions and prompting a retaliatory strike from the U.S. This triggers a global energy crisis as sanctions on Iranian oil exports are re-imposed. * Confirmation indicators: Increased military activity by Iran near US naval vessels, followed by a confirmed drone attack on an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. * Time horizon: 10 to 20 days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: The agreement between the U.S. and Iran to extend the ceasefire is finalized, but underlying tensions remain unresolved. This leads to a period of cautious diplomacy with limited progress on nuclear negotiations. * Confirmation indicators: The formal signing of an extended ceasefire agreement by b (15% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Iran's military forces engage in provocative actions near US naval bases or oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions and prompting a retaliatory strike from the U.S. This triggers a global energy crisis as sanctions on Iranian oil exports are re-imposed. * Confirmation indicators: Increased military activity by Iran near US naval vessels, followed by a confirmed drone attack on an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. * Time horizon: 10 to 20 days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: The agreement between the U.S. and Iran to extend the ceasefire is finalized, but underlying tensions remain unresolved. This leads to a period of cautious diplomacy with limited progress on nuclear negotiations. * Confirmation indicators: The formal signing of an extended ceasefire agreement by b (6% model probability, not a guarantee)