S8/10Geopolitical
FT: Allies hope Trump has become more supportive of Ukraine after strikes inside Russia
European leaders at the NATO summit in Ankara were surprised by the unexpectedly pro-Ukraine tone of US President Donald Trump, with some concluding that Ukraine's recent success in what Trump described as "long-range sanctions" had significantly influenced his position.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 68% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days