Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Armenia's exit from the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) triggers escalating tensions between Armenia and Russia. Within 7 days, Armenia experiences a sharp increase in energy prices due to Russia's control over key energy infrastructure within the EAEU. This pressure on Armenia's economy leads to a 14% decline in GDP within 2 months. * Increased rhetoric from Russian officials regarding Armenia's economic dependence on Russia. * Diplomatic tensions escalate with Armenia and Russia, leading to potential border conflicts. * Armenian businesses experiencing difficulty importing essential goods due to disrupted trade routes. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Armenia maintains its membership in the EAEU and avoids a direct conflict with Russia. The situation remains tense, but no significant eco (30% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Armenia's exit from the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) triggers escalating tensions between Armenia and Russia. Within 7 days, Armenia experiences a sharp increase in energy prices due to Russia's control over key energy infrastructure within the EAEU. This pressure on Armenia's economy leads to a 14% decline in GDP within 2 months. * Increased rhetoric from Russian officials regarding Armenia's economic dependence on Russia. * Diplomatic tensions escalate with Armenia and Russia, leading to potential border conflicts. * Armenian businesses experiencing difficulty importing essential goods due to disrupted trade routes. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Armenia maintains its membership in the EAEU and avoids a direct conflict with Russia. The situation remains tense, but no significant eco (51% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Armenia's exit from the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) triggers escalating tensions between Armenia and Russia. Within 7 days, Armenia experiences a sharp increase in energy prices due to Russia's control over key energy infrastructure within the EAEU. This pressure on Armenia's economy leads to a 14% decline in GDP within 2 months. * Increased rhetoric from Russian officials regarding Armenia's economic dependence on Russia. * Diplomatic tensions escalate with Armenia and Russia, leading to potential border conflicts. * Armenian businesses experiencing difficulty importing essential goods due to disrupted trade routes. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Armenia maintains its membership in the EAEU and avoids a direct conflict with Russia. The situation remains tense, but no significant eco (19% model probability, not a guarantee)

Armenia to lose 14% of GDP if it exits EAEU, cedes energy perks — Putin

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators