S6/10Geopolitical
IEA warns of petrol and diesel supply crunch
Refineries in Gulf and Russia hit by impact of wars, while global consumption has remained high
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Эскалация— 40% model probability
Сценарии event-driven intelligence
Horizon: 7–30 days