Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Forecasts Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Trump's approval of the deal faces opposition from hardliners in his administration and Congress. This leads to delays, with Iran and US officials failing to agree on specific details like sanctions waivers for Iranian oil. Tensions rise, potentially escalating into military action or cyberattacks. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The US and Iran continue negotiations, with the draft memorandum serving as a basis for further discussions. Iran's removal of mines from shipping routes within 30 days is met with cautious optimism in the international community, but concerns remain about long-term st (70% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Forecasts Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Trump's approval of the deal faces opposition from hardliners in his administration and Congress. This leads to delays, with Iran and US officials failing to agree on specific details like sanctions waivers for Iranian oil. Tensions rise, potentially escalating into military action or cyberattacks. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The US and Iran continue negotiations, with the draft memorandum serving as a basis for further discussions. Iran's removal of mines from shipping routes within 30 days is met with cautious optimism in the international community, but concerns remain about long-term st (22% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Forecasts Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Trump's approval of the deal faces opposition from hardliners in his administration and Congress. This leads to delays, with Iran and US officials failing to agree on specific details like sanctions waivers for Iranian oil. Tensions rise, potentially escalating into military action or cyberattacks. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The US and Iran continue negotiations, with the draft memorandum serving as a basis for further discussions. Iran's removal of mines from shipping routes within 30 days is met with cautious optimism in the international community, but concerns remain about long-term st (8% model probability, not a guarantee)

Iran-US deal nears finish line — but Trump and Khamenei must say yes

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators