Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% - Chain: North Korea conducts a series of provocative military exercises near the DMZ, escalating tensions and increasing the risk of accidental escalation. This triggers a US response with increased military deployments in the region. Kim Jong-un responds by further increasing North Korean nuclear tests. - Confirmation Indicators: Increased activity on North Korean military websites, statements from US officials confirming heightened deployment levels, and satellite imagery showing increased missile testing activity. - Time Horizon: 14 to 21 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% - Chain: The RAND report is largely ignored as diplomatic channels remain stagnant. North Korea continues its nuclear program with limited engagement in dialogue with the US or South Korea. Both sides continue to build up military capab (64% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% - Chain: North Korea conducts a series of provocative military exercises near the DMZ, escalating tensions and increasing the risk of accidental escalation. This triggers a US response with increased military deployments in the region. Kim Jong-un responds by further increasing North Korean nuclear tests. - Confirmation Indicators: Increased activity on North Korean military websites, statements from US officials confirming heightened deployment levels, and satellite imagery showing increased missile testing activity. - Time Horizon: 14 to 21 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% - Chain: The RAND report is largely ignored as diplomatic channels remain stagnant. North Korea continues its nuclear program with limited engagement in dialogue with the US or South Korea. Both sides continue to build up military capab (26% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% - Chain: North Korea conducts a series of provocative military exercises near the DMZ, escalating tensions and increasing the risk of accidental escalation. This triggers a US response with increased military deployments in the region. Kim Jong-un responds by further increasing North Korean nuclear tests. - Confirmation Indicators: Increased activity on North Korean military websites, statements from US officials confirming heightened deployment levels, and satellite imagery showing increased missile testing activity. - Time Horizon: 14 to 21 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% - Chain: The RAND report is largely ignored as diplomatic channels remain stagnant. North Korea continues its nuclear program with limited engagement in dialogue with the US or South Korea. Both sides continue to build up military capab (10% model probability, not a guarantee)

How to Avoid an Accidental Nuclear War with North Korea

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators