S8/10Geopolitical
Zelenskyy on impact of refinery strikes in Russia: more Russians want war to end
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy believes that as a result of Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russia's oil and gas sector, Ukraine is managing to shift public sentiment in Russian society and force Russia back to the negotiating table.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 65% model probability
Сценарии event-driven intelligence:
Horizon: 7–30 days